Where Birds Don't Fly

New pilots learn the “What If” prior to departing on their very first solo cross country. Over the years as experience is gained, there could be a tendency for pilots to place these “What If” on the shelf. This may happen since experience often instinctively reverts back to the basics of safety when unexpected events occur. Other times than flying when the “What If” processes are applied is when SMS safety risk levels analysis are conducted. Demonstrating that a “What If” is valid is based on a probability analysis rather than an opinion of possibility. Decisions to accept or reject the safety risk is the final output of the “What If” process. Every operator, being airline or airport, are making continuous safety improvements from this very basic and decades old principle of aviation safety. Never in the history of aviation have it been more important to apply this basic principle, since SMS is being implemented by regulations in many of the ICAO member States and the aviation industry

With any performance-based regulations goals must be established, objectives must be set, and parameters must be defined. One available tool to assist in reaching the goals is to establish expectations. A Safety Management System is a performance-based system where there are expectations or job-aids available as tools for operators to establish processes that conform to regulatory compliance. These tools are established and maintained by the regulator. Expectations are not only applicable to the regulator and their inspections but may also be applied by an enterprise to establish and maintain compliance with organizational policies, processes, procedures and job performance in addition to be their regulatory compliance tool. An expectation is an action required to comply with the intent of a regulatory requirement. However, expectations cannot be applied as the foundation of a regulatory non-compliance or system failure finding. An operator may develop their own expectations independen